Contested Aerial Opportunities: The Measurement Gap at the Centre of Football's Set-Piece Revolution
Set pieces now account for one in four Premier League goals. The aerial-duel metric systematically undercounts the contests that decide them.
STATSWING Research Archive
A preserved record of published research.
These papers remain available with their original reference, publication date, and PDF record. They were published by STATSWING Research; new institutional research continues at Inganci Research.
Epistemic Certainty in Recruitment: The Gap Between What Football Knows and What It Claims to Know
Recruitment produces distinct layers of confidence: analyst judgment, model probability, and market price. They are not the same kind of claim.
The Execution Layer: Mechanics as the Missing Variable in Transfer Prediction
Transfer prediction treats statistical actions as its analytical unit while structural execution quality remains largely unmeasured.
Mechanics Proof-of-Concept: Do Body-Pose Features Improve Shot Outcome Prediction?
A proof-of-concept using 200 EPL shooting instances with broadcast-derived 3D body-pose data.
Does Possession Adjustment Work at the Player Level?
The convention of possession-adjusting centre-back statistics has been widely applied without an equivalent player-level test.
How Large Is the Possession-Adjustment Effect?
Three causal designs find that the suppression mechanism is real but small; standard implementations likely overcorrect.
Publication identifiers, dates, article text, and PDFs are retained as historical records.